9-9 60min 748words
According to the passage, the author contrive to persuade its audience that more investment should be put in Consolidated Industries under the assumption that there should be a considerable amount of increase in the demand for heating oil in the local area. However, despite the various evidences presented throughout the passage, a number of logical errors have weaken the argument and thus make the to the author's viewpoint less convincing. In order to strengthen his or her viewpoint, the author shall pay attention to the following aspects.
First of all, by stating that most homes in northeast US have used oil as their major fuel for heating as a tradition, the author tried to imply that the demand of oil is remarkable within the local region. However, the author have construct its sub-viewpoint based on the assumption that the families within the local region has been holding the same tradition like most families in the northeast US do, which is not as much sufficient since the lack of further information. For instance, to overcome the severe cold season, there should be various other ways of heating other than oil-heating, even in the traditional old days when most of the common technology had not existed yet, such as heating with firewood. Therefore, to make the sub-viewpoint more convincing, the author should include more specific information to prove that the families' heating tradition is of no exception to the most families in northeast US, thus make it more convincing to point out that the demand of oil for heating could be considered remarkable within the local area based on the heating-tradition mentioned above.
Secondly, the author presented a climate forecast in which predicting the severely cold weather pattern will continue for many years, thus guaranteed the solid demand for oil-heating in a few following years. However, the author should be aware of the accuracy of the forecast itself since his or her conclusion is based on the assumption that weather pattern should stick to the forecast without any doubt. Such assumption should remain doubtful to some extent, since to one's common knowledge, weather pattern prediction is so complicated that the common used mathematical and physical models to solve the problem are more than fourteen, through which various of prediction are provided and make it even more difficult to identify the accuracy of one prediction to another. When referring to the weather pattern predicted in several years, it is more likely that the prediction is more of an approximation in general rather than an accurate result which the author has anticipated. If the author want to make its viewpoint more convincing and sufficient, he or she should have supplement more evidences other than one weather forecast to fully verify that the weather pattern should be consistent enough to provide a constant demand of oil within the local area.
Last but not least, considering the new homes built in the region, the author anticipate that the heating oil should be more valuable since the demand will have a trend of increasing in the nearest future. In order to come to the final conclusion, the author has assumed that the new homes built should be fully utilized and, at the same time, largely depend on oil- heating in the nearest future, which unfortunately is far too idealistic to be practical. Considering the popular growth mentioned in the region, it is simply lack of evidences to prove that the new homes built in the region will be fully put in to use. What if the population growth is formed by the workers from the nearby village and thus should have no actual need for pursuing a new home in the region? In addition to that, since there are several new heating technology such as the electric heating or solar heating, it is more likely that the new homes will prefer the cheaper and more environmentally friendly option than the traditional way of oil-heating. To strength the sub-viewpoint, the author should present more statistics to prove that the new homes will be fully occupied and the owners of which still have their preference on the old traditional way of oil-heating.
All in all, the author have did a remarkable work of presenting evidences and analysis to stand his or her own opinion. However, if the author really anticipate to persuade the audience to invest on the Consolidated Industries, the argument should be put more sufficiently and convincingly with some concerns, especially the assumptions mentioned above.